Introduction
Bangladesh, once celebrated as an economic miracle, is now engulfed in chaos. The recent political upheaval has roots that extend beyond mere governance issues; it reflects deep-seated societal frustrations. Understanding the events that led to this crisis provides crucial insights not only for Bangladesh but also for neighboring countries like India.
The Rise and Fall of Bangladesh’s Economic Miracle
Bangladesh’s journey from poverty to prosperity is a remarkable tale of resilience and growth. In 1971, following its liberation from Pakistan, Bangladesh faced monumental challenges. However, over the decades, it transformed into one of Asia’s fastest-growing economies. By 2021, its per capita GDP had even surpassed that of India, showcasing significant economic strides.
The textile sector played a pivotal role in this economic boom, accounting for a staggering 80% of the country’s exports. International organizations, including the IMF, lauded Bangladesh for its impressive growth, predicting it would soon rival established economies like Denmark and Singapore.
### Economic Challenges: The Catalyst for Crisis
Despite these achievements, Bangladesh’s economy faced severe challenges in recent years, primarily due to the COVID-19 pandemic and the subsequent Russia-Ukraine war. These global crises led to a collapse in exports, job losses, and skyrocketing commodity prices, severely impacting the nation’s foreign exchange reserves.
* Foreign exchange reserves plummeted from $48.1 billion in August 2021 to just $26.8 billion by June 2024.
* The Bangladeshi Taka depreciated by 36% against the US dollar since January 2022.
* With rising costs, more than a quarter of the population resorted to loans just to afford basic necessities.
These economic hardships fostered a sense of discontent among the youth, with a staggering 40% of Bangladeshi youth aged 15 to 24 neither working nor studying. This frustration became the breeding ground for unrest.
The Reservation System: Fueling the Bangladesh Crisis
In an attempt to promote social justice, Bangladesh implemented a reservation system post-independence. Initially designed to uplift Freedom Fighters and women affected by the war, this system gradually morphed into a source of contention.
Originally, 80% of government jobs were reserved for Freedom Fighters and their descendants. Over time, this quota was expanded, leading to widespread frustration among those who worked hard to secure jobs based solely on merit.
### The Backlash Against Quotas
By 2021, the government filled 56% of positions based on reservations, leaving only 44% for merit-based appointments. This inequity sparked outrage, culminating in protests against the quota system. The situation escalated in 2018 when public unrest forced the government to abolish the quota system in civil services.
However, the issue reignited in 2024 when a court ruling reinstated the 30% reservation for descendants of Freedom Fighters. This decision proved to be the catalyst for widespread protests across Bangladesh.
The Political Unraveling
On June 5, 2024, the ruling to restore the quota system ignited protests that quickly spiraled into violence. The government’s heavy-handed response to these demonstrations, coupled with inflammatory remarks from Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, fueled further unrest.
Protesters demanded justice for those killed during the demonstrations and the resignation of the Prime Minister. The government’s attempt to label protesters as anti-national only intensified the situation, drawing parallels with India’s political landscape.
### The Government’s Missteps
As the protests grew more violent, the government’s failure to address the underlying economic issues further alienated the populace. The political landscape became increasingly unstable, culminating in the resignation of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina on August 5, 2024.
This rapid political change underscores the fragility of governance when socio-economic disparities are ignored. The reliance on a reservation system that no longer served its intended purpose became a significant factor in the unrest.
Implications for India
The turmoil in Bangladesh carries significant implications for India. The two countries share a robust trade relationship, with Bangladesh being India’s eighth-largest export partner. The recent unrest has already halted trade, affecting various sectors including textiles, machinery, and agricultural products.
Additionally, the potential for a refugee crisis looms large. The 1971 Liberation War saw millions of refugees enter India, and a similar situation could arise if the political instability in Bangladesh escalates.
### What India Can Learn
As India observes the unfolding crisis in Bangladesh, several crucial lessons emerge:
1. **Reservation Policies Must Be Evaluated:** When implemented without careful consideration, reservation systems can lead to societal discord.
2. **Diversify Economic Dependence:** Relying heavily on a single sector for exports can precipitate economic disaster during global crises.
3. **Avoid Political Short-termism:** Leaders must prioritise long-term solutions over populist measures that may yield short-term gains but create long-term instability.
4. **Respect for Protesters:** Labeling dissenters as anti-national can backfire, leading to greater unrest and division within society.
Conclusion
The unfolding crisis in Bangladesh serves as a stark reminder of the importance of equitable policies and effective governance. The lessons learned from this situation are not just applicable to Bangladesh but resonate deeply within the socio-political fabric of India and other developing nations. As nations navigate the complexities of governance, the focus must remain on inclusivity, economic diversification, and the empowerment of all citizens.
References:
https://www.vifindia.org/article/2024/august/2/Quota-Reform-Movement-in-Bangladesh
Link to my other case study:
https://geocrit.com/Japan’s-lost-decade